An unforgettable mistake

.

LINDA S. HEARD

arabnews

Iran is receiving pats on the back from American officials and media for complying with the terms of the US-initiated nuclear agreement that was rubber stamped by the nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Saturday.

So-called television commentators are hailing a new era in West-Iran relations due to Tehran’s swift release of American sailors, whose vessel strayed into Iran’s territorial waters, and view the negotiated prisoner swap positively.

Obama’s critics, who accused him of proceeding with the deal while ignoring the plight of four Americans in Iranian jails, have been silenced, they say. Democrats may like to fool their constituents that everything’s coming up roses and American holidaymakers may shortly be boarding flights to Shiraz or Isfahan, but although that scenario is a vote-getter, the big picture is riddled with negative ramifications.

Firstly, the lifting of sanctions on Iran will unfreeze over $100 billion of Iran’s deposits and assets in phases. It will permit the country to trade freely with Europe although US companies will still be restricted from doing business with Iran in respect to US sanctions related to its ballistic missile program and poor human rights record. Several EU states, including Britain, are visibly rubbing their hands together in anticipation of an inflow of big bucks and racing to reopen their embassies.

Secondly, the freeing-up of Iran’s oil trade couldn’t have come at a worse moment in time when oil prices have descended to less than $30 a barrel due to a glut in the market as well as a fall in demand. Nigeria and some other OPEC member countries are feeling the heat on their economies. They are calling upon Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to agree to cutting production, which they’ve so far declined to do so as to retain their market share.

However, word has it that Iran has been stockpiling oil and although it’s an OPEC member, its Minister for Oil Bijan Zanganeh told CNN that his country aims to increase output by 1.5 million barrels a day by the end of this year. Global markets are already shuddering downward and some analysts predict a 2008-type downturn may be in the offing, which will impact businesses and jobs. A headline on the CNBC website reads “Oil majors, Total, Shell send representatives to Iran as sanctions due to be lifted.” Iran will be shielded from economic woes in the short term due to its mega billion bonanza.

Thirdly, Iran will be in a financial position to bolster its Shiite proxies, cells and spies in Arab countries; it has already announced its plan to further aid groups it refers to as “the resistance.” One can only guess how much money will be set aside to enhance its weapons programs and expand its military capabilities. If the long-suffering Iranian people are waiting for benefits in terms of infrastructure and job creation, they might as well be waiting for Godot. The ayatollahs’ priority is the dissemination of their ideology followed by the furtherance of its regional hegemonic ambitions.

The irony is Iran has been rewarded for getting rid of a nuclear weapons program it didn’t have in the first place as, according to the IAEA, it had been dismantled in 2009.

Iran may be playing comparatively nice with the United States right now — naturally when it has so much to gain — but just watch! As soon as it has all its assets and deals under its belt, it will once again bare its teeth. Iran’s hard-liners who disapproved of the nuclear deal are anxious to do just that.

Lastly, any hopes that Saudis and Iranians can get round the same table to agree on ways of solving Syria’s civil war look increasingly dim. US Secretary of State John Kerry’s efforts to sweet talk Saudi foreign minister are likely to fall on deaf ears when he was the prime mover of the nuclear deal aided by his warm personal relationship with the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javed Zarif cultivated by his daughter’s Iranian husband, believed to have close connections to Iranian decision makers.

Thank you Obama and John Kerry for rattling the global economy, destroying the economies of oil producing countries and for triggering increased destabilization of a region struggling to recover from years of violence and turmoil! I suspect Obama’s legacy and his Middle East policy overall will be one he will eventually try to forget. Time will tell.