?What’s next for Turkey

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The attempted military coup that took place on Friday night shocked the region as a few, if any, could have predicted such an act. For more than a decade, the ruling party in Turkey has offered the Muslim world a model of economic prosperity and democratic governance.
As a consequence, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become a source of inspiration for many Islamist parties and movements across the Muslim world in their attempt to assume power in key countries. But that is easier said than done, Islamists have been on the decline in the wake of the so-called Arab Spring uprisings.
The failed coup attempt came at a time the Turkish government is simultaneously fighting two terrorist groups: Daesh and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a separatist group that has been battling the central government since the middle of the 1980s. For this reason, the timing of the coup could not have been more critical. However, the Turkish people moved swiftly to stand with the legitimate government.
Of course, there is no love lost between President Erdogan and some of his subjects. Indeed, the society is divided between those who loathe him and those who adore him. In his bid to place the military under his control, successive governments — during Erdogan’s era — have arrested and prosecuted hundreds of officers who were accused of plotting against the regime. Equally important, Erdogan is being accused of repressing liberties and freedom of expression.
Interestingly enough, the Turkish people don’t buy into these accusations. Once a group of the army moved to take control, it was obvious that people chose to be on the side of democracy. Even long-standing critics of President Erdogan made it perfectly clear that they denounced the plot. The opposition parties also denounced the plot.
In this article, I argue that the winners are the supporters of democracy. It is as if the Turkish people sought to speak out loud that any change in the future has to be through the ballots rather than bullets. In other words, the era of the military coups has come to an end and the people will only accept whoever gets elected.
Turkey is not yet stable. In the wake of the coup, it is expected that President Erdogan will move swiftly to purge hundreds if not thousands of army soldiers. In his first speech after the failed coup attempt, he referred to the followers of Fethullah Gulen — a religious scholar living in the United States, who was a close Erdogan ally until their bitter fall out a few years ago — as the culprits.
Fethullah Gulen is known to have followers especially in the police and the judiciary. Whether Erdogan’s accusations of Gulen are based on solid intelligence or not is to be seen. Besides, purging thousands of his opponents may create some rifts in the society as a whole.
Now it seems that Turkey has began waking up after the unexpected coup shocked the country. After a surreal night, the elected government has regained the full control of the country and the borders. But, how will this impact the political system in general. I will state no secret when I say that Erdogan seeks to bring about a constitutional change to institute a presidential rather than a parliamentarian system in the country. Will purging his opponents help him get what he seeks or create new challenges? Will he seize the moment and steer Turkey out of its regional isolation? These questions are hard to answer as President Erdogan will look inward to rectify many of his polices.